So it is official. The new GDP number for Nigeria was released today. It is 80.3 trillion naira for 2013. That is according to NBS this afternoon. The old GDP number was 42.4 trillion naira. The increase is bigger than per-announced and Nigeria overtakes South Africa.
Old GDP per capita for Nigeria (in current USD) = $1,437
New GDP per capita for Nigeria (in current USD) = $2,258
What is GDP in Nigeria according to the World Bank today? The World Bank Development Indicators so far only has data for 2012, and they still report 41.2 trillion Naira. That is a bit higher than the old number NBS reported for 2012 (40.5), but far lower than the new number for 2012 (71.2).
It will probably take a while before all organizations get the same numbers for Nigeria. In the case of Ghana they announced their new GDP in November 2010, but it was not until April 2011 that World Bank accepted the new income status, and the database was only updated in late 2012.
Here’s a snapshot of the new and old economy of Nigeria (this is the official NBS presentation).
Does it seem to you that the Nigerian economy suddenly is growing faster? It is. On the old series growth was 10, 8 and 4 percent in 2011, 2012 and 2013 respectively. On the new series we have 17, 13 and 12 percent growth for the same years.
Also note that Nigeria used to be almost 1/3 agriculture, almost half industry, and just about a quarter services. On the new benchmark year for 2010, we have a neat 50-25-25 division. Those who thought that Nigeria was a petroleum economy will be surprised, because on the new numbers, 50 percent of Nigerian GDP comes from services.
And what about GDP in other countries – the first analysis of base years in African development statistic was published last year in Poor Numbers.
In a piece for African Affairs, African Arguments and the Guardian I guesstimated that the total increase in Nigeria would mean that at the time there were about 40 Malawi’s unaccounted for inside the Nigerian economy. It turns out there were 58.